Event-Alpha
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Opportunity Feed
Latest pipeline predictions filtered by opportunity tier
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Agreement Strength
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Tier
Question
Agreement
Model P(Yes)
Crowd
Side
Strength
Actionable Edge
Kelly ¼
Volume
End Date
Horizon
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Paper trading positions with full context
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$ Live Prices
Stop-loss:
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Status
Question
Side
Entry→Now
Size %
Cost
P&L
End Date
Tier
Action
Model Performance
Confirmatory positions only — legacy contrarian data excluded
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Strategy Comparison — Confirmatory vs Contrarian
Sheldrake thesis validation: does trading with the crowd (model as filter) outperform betting against it?
Calibration Plot
Category Breakdown
Bet History
Settled positions with W/L outcomes
Result
Question
Side
Cost
P&L
Open Paper Position
Model Prob
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Crowd Price (YES)
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Actionable Edge
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Kelly 1/4
-
Side
YES
NO
Size (% of bankroll, 0 = auto Kelly)
Est. Entry Price
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Est. Cost
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